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An advanced LIGO and Virgo’s third observing run brought another binary neutron star merger (BNS) and the first neutron-star black hole mergers. While no confirmed kilonovae were identified in conjunction with any of these events, continued improvements of analyses surrounding GW170817 allow us to project constraints on the Hubble Constant (H₀), the Galactic enrichment fromr-process nucleosynthesis, and ultra-dense matter possible from forthcoming events. Here, we describe the expected constraints based on the latest expected event rates from the international gravitational-wave network and analyses of GW170817. We show the expected detection rate of gravitational waves and their counterparts, as well as how sensitive potential constraints are to the observed numbers of counterparts. We intend this analysis as support for the community when creating scientifically driven electromagnetic follow-up proposals. During the next observing run O4, we predict an annual detection rate of electromagnetic counterparts from BNS of ${0.43}_{-0.26}^{+0.58}$( ${1.97}_{-1.2}^{+2.68}$) for the Zwicky Transient Facility (Rubin Observatory). 

Abstract Multipeaked supernovae with precursors, dramatic light-curve rebrightenings, and spectral transformation are rare, but are being discovered in increasing numbers by modern night-sky transient surveys like the Zwicky Transient Facility. Here, we present the observations and analysis of SN 2023aew, which showed a dramatic increase in brightness following an initial luminous (−17.4 mag) and long (∼100 days) unusual first peak (possibly precursor). SN 2023aew was classified as a Type IIb supernova during the first peak but changed its type to resemble a stripped-envelope supernova (SESN) after the marked rebrightening. We present comparisons of SN 2023aew’s spectral evolution with SESN subtypes and argue that it is similar to SNe Ibc during its main peak. P-Cygni Balmer lines are present during the first peak, but vanish during the second peak’s photospheric phase, before Hαresurfaces again during the nebular phase. The nebular lines ([Oi], [Caii], Mgi], Hα) exhibit a double-peaked structure that hints toward a clumpy or nonspherical ejecta. We analyze the second peak in the light curve of SN 2023aew and find it to be broader than that of normal SESNe as well as requiring a very high⁵⁶Ni mass to power the peak luminosity. We discuss the possible origins of SN 2023aew including an eruption scenario where a part of the envelope is ejected during the first peak and also powers the second peak of the light curve through interaction of the SN with the circumstellar medium. 

Abstract During the first half of the fourth observing run (O4a) of the International Gravitational Wave Network, the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) conducted a systematic search for kilonova (KN) counterparts to binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star–black hole (NSBH) merger candidates. Here, we present a comprehensive study of the five high-significance (False Alarm Rate less than 1 yr⁻¹) BNS and NSBH candidates in O4a. Our follow-up campaigns relied on both target-of-opportunity observations and re-weighting of the nominal survey schedule to maximize coverage. We describe the toolkit we have been developing,Fritz, an instance ofSkyPortal, instrumental in coordinating and managing our telescope scheduling, candidate vetting, and follow-up observations through a user-friendly interface. ZTF covered a total of 2841 deg²within the skymaps of the high-significance GW events, reaching a median depth ofg≈ 20.2 mag. We circulated 15 candidates, but found no viable KN counterpart to any of the GW events. Based on the ZTF non-detections of the high-significance events in O4a, we used a Bayesian approach,nimbus, to quantify the posterior probability of KN model parameters that are consistent with our non-detections. Our analysis favors KNe with initial absolute magnitude fainter than −16 mag. The joint posterior probability of a GW170817-like KN associated with all our O4a follow-ups was 64%. Additionally, we use a survey simulation software,simsurvey, to determine that our combined filtered efficiency to detect a GW170817-like KN is 36%, when considering the 5 confirmed astrophysical events in O3 (1 BNS and 4 NSBH events), along with our O4a follow-ups. Following Kasliwal et al., we derived joint constraints on the underlying KN luminosity function based on our O3 and O4a follow-ups, determining that no more than 76% of KNe fading at 1 mag day⁻¹can peak at a magnitude brighter than −17.5 mag. 

Abstract One of the open questions following the discovery of GW170817 is whether neutron star (NS) mergers are the only astrophysical sites capable of producingr-process elements. Simulations have shown that 0.01–0.1M_⊙ofr-process material could be generated in the outflows originating from the accretion disk surrounding the rapidly rotating black hole that forms as a remnant to both NS mergers and collapsing massive stars associated with long-duration gamma-ray bursts (collapsars). The hallmark signature ofr-process nucleosynthesis in the binary NS merger GW170817 was its long-lasting near-infrared (NIR) emission, thus motivating a systematic photometric study of the light curves of broad-lined stripped-envelope (Ic-BL) supernovae (SNe) associated with collapsars. We present the first systematic study of 25 SNe Ic-BL—including 18 observed with the Zwicky Transient Facility and 7 from the literature—in the optical/NIR bands to determine what quantity ofr-process material, if any, is synthesized in these explosions. Using semi-analytic models designed to account forr-process production in SNe Ic-BL, we perform light curve fitting to derive constraints on ther-process mass for these SNe. We also perform independent light curve fits to models without ther-process. We find that ther-process-free models are a better fit to the light curves of the objects in our sample. Thus, we find no compelling evidence ofr-process enrichment in any of our objects. Further high-cadence infrared photometric studies and nebular spectroscopic analysis would be sensitive to smaller quantities ofr-process ejecta mass or indicate whether all collapsars are completely devoid ofr-process nucleosynthesis. 

Abstract We report observations of the optical counterpart of the long gamma-ray burst (GRB) GRB 230812B and its associated supernova (SN) SN 2023pel. The proximity (z= 0.36) and high energy (E_γ,iso∼ 10⁵³erg) make it an important event to study as a probe of the connection between massive star core collapse and relativistic jet formation. With a phenomenological power-law model for the optical afterglow, we find a late-time flattening consistent with the presence of an associated SN. SN 2023pel has an absolute peakr-band magnitude ofM_r= −19.46 ± 0.18 mag (about as bright as SN 1998bw) and evolves on quicker timescales. Using a radioactive heating model, we derive a nickel mass powering the SN ofM_Ni= 0.38 ± 0.01M_⊙and a peak bolometric luminosity ofL_bol∼ 1.3 × 10⁴³erg s⁻¹. We confirm SN 2023pel’s classification as a broad-line Type Ic SN with a spectrum taken 15.5 days after its peak in therband and derive a photospheric expansion velocity ofv_ph= 11,300 ± 1600 km s⁻¹at that phase. Extrapolating this velocity to the time of maximum light, we derive the ejecta massM_ej= 1.0 ± 0.6M_⊙and kinetic energy $E_{\mathrm{KE}}={1.3}_{-1.2}^{+3.3}\times {10}^{51}\mathrm{erg}$. We find that GRB 230812B/SN 2023pel has SN properties that are mostly consistent with the overall GRB-SN population. The lack of correlations found in the GRB-SN population between SN brightness andE_γ,isofor their associated GRBs across a broad range of 7 orders of magnitude provides further evidence that the central engine powering the relativistic ejecta is not coupled to the SN powering mechanism in GRB-SN systems. 

Abstract We presentnimbus: a hierarchical Bayesian framework to infer the intrinsic luminosity parameters of kilonovae (KNe) associated with gravitational-wave (GW) events, based purely on nondetections. This framework makes use of GW 3D distance information and electromagnetic upper limits from multiple surveys for multiple events and self-consistently accounts for the finite sky coverage and probability of astrophysical origin. The framework is agnostic to the brightness evolution assumed and can account for multiple electromagnetic passbands simultaneously. Our analyses highlight the importance of accounting for model selection effects, especially in the context of nondetections. We show our methodology using a simple, two-parameter linear brightness model, taking the follow-up of GW190425 with the Zwicky Transient Facility as a single-event test case for two different prior choices of model parameters: (i) uniform/uninformative priors and (ii) astrophysical priors based on surrogate models of Monte Carlo radiative-transfer simulations of KNe. We present results under the assumption that the KN is within the searched region to demonstrate functionality and the importance of prior choice. Our results show consistency withsimsurvey—an astronomical survey simulation tool used previously in the literature to constrain the population of KNe. While our results based on uniform priors strongly constrain the parameter space, those based on astrophysical priors are largely uninformative, highlighting the need for deeper constraints. Future studies with multiple events having electromagnetic follow-up from multiple surveys should make it possible to constrain the KN population further. 

Abstract The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) triggers on-board in response to ∼40 short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) per year; however, their large localization regions have made the search for optical counterparts a challenging endeavour. We have developed and executed an extensive program with the wide field of view of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) camera, mounted on the Palomar 48 inch Oschin telescope (P48), to perform target-of-opportunity (ToO) observations on 10 Fermi-GBM SGRBs during 2018 and 2020–2021. Bridging the large sky areas with small field-of-view optical telescopes in order to track the evolution of potential candidates, we look for the elusive SGRB afterglows and kilonovae (KNe) associated with these high-energy events. No counterpart has yet been found, even though more than 10 ground-based telescopes, part of the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) network, have taken part in these efforts. The candidate selection procedure and the follow-up strategy have shown that ZTF is an efficient instrument for searching for poorly localized SGRBs, retrieving a reasonable number of candidates to follow up and showing promising capabilities as the community approaches the multi-messenger era. Based on the median limiting magnitude of ZTF, our searches would have been able to retrieve a GW170817-like event up to ∼200 Mpc and SGRB afterglows to z = 0.16 or 0.4, depending on the assumed underlying energy model. Future ToOs will expand the horizon to z = 0.2 and 0.7, respectively.